Electricity generation from solar power will lead to a surge in renewables over the next 10 years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, with renewables accounting for 80 % of the growth in global electricity generation under current conditions.
The IEA expects renewable energy sources to overtake coal as the main means of electricity production by 2025. These are the conclusions of one of the analyses, which reflects the already announced intentions and goals of politicians around the world, in the agency's annual World Energy Outlook, published in Tuesday.
The combined share of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power in global generation will rise to almost 30% in 2030 from 8% in 2019, with solar PV capacity said to grow by an average of 12% per year, reports Reuters.
Coal, among the most polluting fossil fuels, will soon account for just a fifth of global energy use, the lowest level since the Industrial Revolution.
Maturing technologies and support mechanisms have reduced the cost of financing large solar PV projects, the IEA says, which has helped lower overall production costs. Solar PV is already cheaper than new coal or gas-fired power plants in most countries, the agency said.
Solar energy will become the new king of global electricity markets. Based on today's policies, solar will set records every year after 2022.
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA)
Renewable energy production is the only major source that continues to grow in 2020, the Paris-based agency added.
A more ambitious forecast scenario, including the adoption of net-zero emissions targets by 2050, would lead to even stronger solar production, the report said.
Despite increases in solar and wind power, carbon emissions are expected to increase in 2021 after falling by 2.4 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2020 and exceed 2019 levels in 2027 before rising to 36 Gt in 2030
The coronavirus pandemic is expected to cause a record 7% drop in global industry-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2020.
The pandemic has caused a big drop in global economic activity, with energy demand expected to fall by 5% in 2020 – the biggest drop in the past century, excluding the world wars and the Great Depression of 1929.
The IEA said that in many cases gaps remain between long-term ambitions and concrete short-term plans to limit emissions.
The integration of new wind and solar power will depend on adequate investment in all parts of the system, including distribution networks, the report added.
But revenue shortfalls — potentially stemming from lower-than-expected demand, nonpayment of bills or deteriorating utility financing in emerging economies — could make power grids the weak link in the system.
oil demand is expected to fall over the next decade, but Birol warned that the pandemic will not help permanently reduce oil demand or limit carbon emissions. He said he sees no clear signs of a peak in oil demand or a rapid decline based on current policy positions.
Global annual investment in clean energy must increase from $300 billion to $1.6 trillion by 2030 – equivalent to total energy investment in 2020 – if we are to have any hope of tackling the climate crisis, Birol said.
