It is an exaggeration to believe that coal-fired power plants have the essential role to play in overcoming the crisis in Europe caused by disrupted energy supplies from Russia and increased prices in 2022. In fact, it is solar and wind energy that have been able to compensate for the decline in the production of current from hydroelectric power plants caused by the drought, which also led to NPP accidents, which also reduced their contribution to the production of electricity in the European Union. At the same time, gas power plants have not changed their market share, despite the drastic increase in the price of the blue fuel.
This is according to an analysis by one of the most prestigious European energy institutes - EMBER, which predicts that in 2023, Europe's transition to wind and solar energy will accelerate in response to the energy crisis, and hydroelectric and French nuclear energy will recover. As a result, EMBER estimates that electricity generation from fossil fuels could fall by 20% this year, and from natural gas the collapse could be even greater.
The summary data shows that wind and solar power had a share of 22.3 percent of electricity generation in Europe last year, overtaking natural gas, coal and nuclear power plants. The share of electricity from gas remains close to 20 percent, Coal, although they add 1.5 percent to nearly 16 percent of the total electricity generated. Hydropower plants and nuclear power plants account for a total of over 32%.
Last year, Europe faced a triple crisis in the power sector - just as it struggled to cut ties with its biggest supplier of fossil gas, it faced the lowest levels of hydro and nuclear power in at least two decades, which created a deficit equal to 7% of total electricity demand in Europe in 2022, the institute's report says
Record increases in wind and solar power generation have helped mitigate hydro and nuclear shortages. Solar power increased its share the most, with a record 39 TWh (+24%) in 2022. This helped to avoid €10 billion in gas costs, and twenty EU countries set new solar records in 2022. , add the authors of the study.
Lower electricity demand has also helped reduce the electricity deficit. Electricity consumption fell by 7.9% in the last quarter of 2022 compared to a year earlier (-56 Twh). Decisive for this was the mild weather, but the increased energy efficiency and consumer behavior of citizens for energy savings also had a significant contribution.
In fact, only one-sixth of the nuclear and hydro deficit was covered by coal, the report added. This has led to a 3.9 percent increase in carbon emissions of the EU energy sector (+26 million t CO2) in 2022 compared to 2021.
Despite expectations, no significant shift from gas to coal has occurred. Coal electricity generation even declined in the last quarter of 2022. The decline was 6% (-9.6 TWh) from September to December compared to the same period of the previous year and clearly shows the failure of the coal boom.
The 26 CHP plants brought back into emergency mode operated at just 18% average load in the fourth quarter of 2022 and added a total of less than 1% to EU coal production in 2022. Despite imports of 22 million tonnes additional coal in 2022, the EU has used only a third of it, EMBER notes.
The most encouraging thing is that the EU member states, with the exception of Bulgaria, continue to support the gradual elimination of coal, as before the crisis, the authors of the report also point out.
"Record production of solar and wind power is helping us through the crisis. However, countries like Bulgaria and Romania are trying to use the moment to talk that coal has a future. Given the depth of the crisis and the small rebound for coal, it is obviously clear that there is no such future," commented Alexandru Mustatsa from the "Europe Beyond Coal" campaign.
"This report shows that Europe can afford to breathe a sigh of relief: the much-hyped coal revival has not happened because of solar power and EU-wide energy saving efforts," added Pieter de Poe, E3G's Transition Program Leader fossil fuels
“The European Electricity Review 2023 proves that demand reduction combined with significantly more wind and solar power can replace fossil fuels in the electricity sector. It doesn't take a fossil gas crisis for us to understand this and take appropriate action," commented Elif Günduzieli, senior energy policy expert at CAN Europe.
However, EMBER notes that there are still challenges facing solar energy. Permitting procedures for the construction of photovoltaic plants remain almost twice as long as they should be under the new
rules provided for by the strategic European initiative, REPowerEU.
EMBER's analysis highlights the poor practices and non-transparent processes of local grid operators in member states that are hindering the faster connection of solar power to the grid, notes the Center for the Study of Democracy.
The big risk is two-speed Europe in the development of RES. The ten countries at the bottom in terms of RES share are from Eastern Europe (+France). The ten leading countries in terms of RES share are Western European (+Greece). EMBER recommends that the EC's efforts to promote RES should be focused on Eastern Europe.
